Tuesday, April 19, 2005

 

Creationist statistics

Creationists love to trumpet the claim that statistics prove evolution to be impossible. If, for example, we have ten cards numbered one through ten and lay them face down on the table in a row, the probability that they will be in perfect sequence one through ten is extremely low. But that is not how natural selection works!

As a practical experiment, I placed 10 numbered cards face down on my desk, mixing them around before the start and before each time I drew a card. If the card was not the correct sequentially numbered card. I put it back in the pile. That is how natural selection and evolution works!

I laid down the correct one through ten sequence in only 57 tries!

Try it yourself, preferably in front of a statistics spouting creationist. (not that you will convince him/her, but it might be fun anyway!)

For more information on creationist nonsense, visit my web site at http://www.fsteiger.com/creation.html
Comments:
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This is a very common misconception perpetrated by creationists. I'm always amazed at how many anti-evolutionists I talk to that don't even understand the basic principles of the theory of evolution - but yet they're sure it's wrong.
I also address this issue in "65 Dice" at http://www.epicidiot.com/evo_cre/65_dice.htm
Also closely related to this topic is "13 Cards" at http://www.epicidiot.com/evo_cre/13cards.htm

cheers,
jeff
 
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I would like to ask:
- After how many tries did a card change from an ace of spades to a king of diamonds?
- After how many tries did extra cards start appearing?

I apologize if these questions sound like I'm putting down the theory, I'm actually really interested and I do respect it. I think Richard Dawkins did a very similar thing - you might want to check out the 'weasel ' program. Check out http://www.answersingenesis.org/creation/v20/i4/weasel.asp

Do you have any links to sites that state the evolutionary theory in its entirety? (and the most modern version) From start to finish. I am very keen on this topic. I'm not anti-evolution per se, just interested in the truth. I'm still trying to get a copy of "The Blind Watchmaker" (R. Dawkins).

Thanks
 
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